by Ian Harvey
November 18, 2019
Stock market expectations were met with a strong weekly performance from the major indexes, which extended their weekly winning streaks.
The on-going trade agreement between the U.S. and China caused ups and downs throughout the week, but the bullish bias was stoked by upbeat trade talk on Friday.
There were plenty of positive signs.....
But, some negatives were also noticed.....
The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to be up 1.2% for the week. The S&P 500 added 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite was up by 1.2% for the week.
EARNINGS PREDICTIONS RESULTS FOR WEEK BEGINNING NOVEMBER 11, 2019
|DATE||TRADE||EXITING BEFORE EARNINGS||GAIN/LOSS AFTER EARNINGS|
|November 12, 2019||OSTK DEC 20 2019 10.000 PUT||12% P.P.||64% P.P.|
|November 13, 2019||CSCO DEC 20 2019 50.000 CALL||71% P.P.||-90%|
|November 14, 2019||WMT DEC 20 2019 120.000 CALL||50% P.P.||182% P.P.|
|November 14, 2019||AMAT DEC 20 2019 57.500 CALL||44% P.P.||289% P.P.|
|November 12, 2019||NVDA DEC 20 2019 215.000 CALL||34% P.P.||3% P.P.|
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Stock Market Expectations for the Week Ahead…..
Stock market expectations are still high for the week ahead for the major indices to continue to add to last week’s positives, as retail stocks take the spotlight.
Trade progress will be the big factor determining the progress of the stock market expectations.
The markets have started the month with a powerful, largely cyclical, rally. There is a stock market expectation that the many stocks just below new highs will break through this level and create new highs.
Energy, the leading sector this month, is up nearly 7%, with double digit gains in exploration and production companies like Apache and Devon, and services firms like Halliburton and Schlumberger.
There are driving forces for the rally......
Analysts are confident.....
Stock Market Calendar for the Week Ahead
The Fed will remain in focus, with the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes due out Wednesday, along with several Fed speeches which will trickle in throughout the week.
There is housing data with housing starts Tuesday and existing home sales Thursday. There is also Markit manufacturing and services PMI, which will be watched carefully Friday for signs of a pickup in manufacturing activity or any spillover from manufacturing weakness into services.
Stock Market Expectations for Earnings
Home Depot (HD) will headline the retail roll, with quarterly report from Macy's (M) and Target (TGT) also in the spotlight.
Home Depot, TJX, Kohl’s, Aramark, Medtronic, Campbell Soup, Foot Locker, Urban Outfitters
Lowe’s, Target, Salesforce.com, L Brands
Macy’s, Nordstrom, Gap, Intuit, Ross Stores, Berry Global, Momo
JM Smucker, Buckle
Besides some of those companies mentioned above, which will be part of our considerations for members of “Earnings Predictions;” there are several that will be recommended to other members - of “Armchair Traders,” “Cut-to-the-Chase” and “Mentorship.”
Action to Take Based on the Stock Market Expectations…..
Stock market expectations for year end, would suggest that the market still isn’t bullish enough. Historically, when there is a positive move in the market in both January and February, and February is usually the second worst month of the year — second only to September, the S&P tends to be up 100% of the time.
The average total return is 24% for the full year during this time. So far this year, the index is up 24.4%.
Therefore, based on this information expect the S&P 500 to continue to reach record levels through December.
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