by Ian Harvey
September 22, 2019
The Past Week…..
Stock Market expectations failed to live up to the previous couple of weeks, with the major indexes snapping a three-week winning streak. The Dow and Nasdaq fell 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively, for the week. The S&P 500 lost 0.5% this week.
The week started off with a bang, as oil prices staged their biggest one-day surge in a decade following airstrikes on Saudi Arabian crude production facilities.
Washington and Beijing have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of one another’s goods since the start of 2018, battering financial markets and souring business and consumer sentiment.
In recent weeks, economic stimulus around the world has helped to ease fears about slowing global growth. Monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week and by the European Central Bank last week appears to have improved market sentiment. The Fed lowered rates on Wednesday by 25 basis points for the second time this year.
Earnings Predictions For Last Week….
“Earnings Predictions” members suffered this past week, unless they exited the trades just before earnings. If they had managed to do this then a nice potential profit was in the offering!…..
EARNINGS PREDICTIONS RESULTS FOR WEEK BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 09
|DATE||TRADE||EXITING BEFORE EARNINGS||GAIN/LOSS|
|September 17, 2019||CBRL SEP 20 2019 162.000 PUT||44% P.P||-45%|
|September 17, 2019||ADBE SEP 20 2019 285 CALL||99% P.P||-75%|
|September 17, 2019||GME JAN 17 2020 4.000 CALL||28% P.P.||-97%|
|September 18, 2019||GIS OCT 18 2019 52.500 CALL||45% P.P.||44.5% P.P.|
|September 19, 2019||DRI OCT 18 2019 130.000 CALL||11% P.P.||-72.5%|
If you wish to part of this action CLICK HERE.
Stock Market Expectations for the Week Ahead…..
A fresh round of Fed speeches will be in focus, after a divided central bank cut its key benchmark rate last week. This could spark some volatility in the banking sector, while Wall Street will also be watching an onslaught of economic data -- including the final reading on second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).
Developments in U.S.-Chinese trade talks could be important for markets in the week ahead, as stocks struggle to regain highs.
Reports Friday that Chinese agriculture officials canceled visits to farms in Montana and Nebraska sent stocks lower, for fear it signaled that talks were not making progress.
Stock market expectations for the tech sector are very important to the overall upward progress of the indexes. Tech has been out of kilter, faltering and is becoming a headwind producing so many mixed signals in the market for quite a while.
The Fed will be in focus after problems in the overnight funding market, used by banks in need of short term cash. Rates spiked for repo, or repurchase agreements, in a chaotic two-day period Monday and Tuesday.
One indicator that suggests that the market will soon see new highs is the breadth indicator - this is the advance-decline line — the amount of advancing stocks minus declining stocks.
The advance-decline line is making a new high, while the S&P 500 has fallen back, similar to early in 2019. It is predicted that the index will soon catch up to the advance-decline line, pushing it through the old July 26 high.
The bullish case is still alive and well, particularly if Washington and Beijing agree to a trade deal, a strong U.S. jobs market that’ll keep consumers spending and a global economy on the mend due to easy central bank policies.
Growth stocks will lead the market to new highs, such as consumer discretionary, semiconductors and financials as the biggest beneficiaries.
It appears that the economy is doing fine and the fundamentals for stocks moving higher are still intact.
However, be warned, stock market expectations are extremely close to reclaiming its record highs, but stock volatility has been 25% higher in October on average since 1928. Big price swings have been seen in each major stock benchmark and sector in October over the past 30 years, with technology and health care being the most volatile groups.
Stock Market Calendar for the Week Ahead
Stock Market Expectations for Earnings
Besides some of those companies mentioned above, which will be part of our stock market expectations considerations for members of “Earnings Predictions;” there are several that will be recommended to other members of - “Armchair Traders,” “Cut-to-the-Chase” and “Mentorship” - such as mentioned below…..
Action to Take Based on the Stock Market Expectations…..
According to our stock market expectations it is expected that the market will continue moving higher and the S&P 500 to reach 3,150 by the end of the year.
Improvements in indicators such as the advancing shares over declining; is a good sign for further gains. This past week has seen the percent of stocks with an upward sloping 200-day moving average is the best of the year so far, and new highs are showing up in transports, discretionary and banks.
The following still rings true for the stock market expectations in September, despite the past history as noted in an article earlier this month…..“I believe there is still plenty of upward movement in the stock market, with lots of volatility thrown in - “The Bull Rally Continues?” – as there are still plenty of driving factors such as better-than-expected earnings reported in sectors that help drive the economy, the trade tensions may ease and eventually be worked out, the Fed’s recent rate cut will help the housing market, world conflicts become less and the economy will continue to be okay. Obviously, there is always the unforeseen situation where a “black swan” raises its feathers, but for now there are still plenty of positives to profit from going forward.
So for Stock Options Made Easy, and its members, we tend to play our own game, not to be “sheep-to-the-slaughter”, and continue to profit!”
To get more overall investment insights,
earnings predictions for the week ahead, and profitable trades provided to
members in real time, join us at Stock Options Made Easy today!