The Week Ahead in the Stock Market

The Week Ahead in the Stock Market
January 14, 2013

Week Ahead: Earnings to Bolster Bulls!

Stock Market: Financials in Focus!

Wall Street: Rally to Continue?

by Ian Harvey

January 14, 2013

Introduction

Dozens of corporate earnings reports are expected in the week ahead, including J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, General Electric and Intel. While always important, the attitude of companies this quarter will be the major this to the direction of the stock market, and their assessment of future business prospects could provide an important tell about the course of not just the U.S., but the global economy this year.

That is, in part, due to the fact that U.S. companies put a stop on spending, as they awaited the year end outcome of the congressional debate over the "fiscal cliff." It was also because a slower China and a weak Europe during 2012 provided a feeling of unease.

But the view coming into 2013 is that things are changing, and there is guarded optimism that China may be beginning to turn and that Europe is stabilizing. Housing is helping the U.S. economy, but once again markets and the economy will be vulnerable during the next round of budget debates and debt ceiling showdown in Washington, expected in the next couple of weeks.

The first full week of earnings season is dominated by the financial sector - big investment banks and commercial banks - just as retail investors, free from the "fiscal cliff" worries, have started to get back into the markets.

Equities have risen in the New Year, rallying after the initial resolution of the fiscal cliff in Washington on January 2. The S&P 500 on Friday closed its second straight week of gains, leaving it just fractionally off a five-year closing high hit on Thursday.

An array of financial companies - including Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - will report on Wednesday. Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) will join on Thursday.

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The Past Week
The major averages finished higher for a second week in a row and interest rates moved slightly lower. Also, energy and precious metals futures moved slightly lower.

For the month, U.S. stocks are higher. That's due in part to economic reports that have been more positive and earnings reports, so far, have been acceptable.

The bottom line about the market is that there's a lot of money that doesn't believe a significant pullback is in the offing. Not yet anyway. So the market's resilience, a reality for the last few months, continues.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 0.40 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) gained 0.38 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) advanced 0.77 percent.

For the month, the Dow is up 2.9%. The S&P 500 has climbed 3.2%, and the Nasdaq has risen 3.8%.

The major averages are trading 3% to 5% above their 200-day, 50-day and 20-day moving averages. Those are signals of investor confidence. The 14-day relative strength index for the averages is below 70. That also suggests the market isn't getting ahead of itself.

Hewlett-Packard was the best weekly performer on the Dow for the second-straight week, while Bank of America slumped.

Among the key S&P sectors, health care was the best performer for the week, while telecoms slid.

Wall Street got its first look at big bank earnings, with Wells Fargo edging past earnings expectations. Revenue of $21.9 billion was about in line with expectations. However, traders reacted negatively to the report amid disappointment with the profit margin in the bank's lending business.

The Markets Ending January 11, 2013

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) ), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, is off more than 25 percent so far this month and it recently hit its lowest since June 2007, before the recession began.

Market Rallying

The fiscal cliffhanger resolution, coupled with a strong start to earnings season, has fueled a strong stock market rally in the first full trading week of the year.

Stocks surprised the market skeptics last week because while most of the major averages showed little change, the market did not go down as most expected. The standout was the Dow Jones Transportation Average as it moved above the 2012 highs and is close to its all-time highs.

While the early 2013 stock market rally has been impressive, the sharp increase in some key interest rates has also caught investors' attention. The yield on the 10-Year T-Note just dropped slightly from the end of 2011 to the 2012 year-end yield of 1.765%.

But there were plenty of wide swings during the year as yields hit a high of 2.34% in March and a low of 1.39% in July. Since early in December, yields have risen from a low of 1.56% to close at 1.87% this week.

The daily chart shows a strong rally from the July lows, line c, and the break through resistance at the September highs (line b). The daily chart reveals quite a bit of resistance between 1.90% and 2.06% from early in 2012 with more important now at 2.31%, line a, which connects the late 2011 and early 2012 highs.

Though one might conclude from this daily chart that rates have bottomed, one must examine the recent action in terms of the long-term yield chart, which goes back to 1985 when the yield was 13.8%.

Since 1995, yields have been in a pretty well-defined downward channel, line d and e. The yield is still below the 20-month EMA as it has been since May 2011. The EMA is now at 2.01%. From the long-term chart, it would take much higher yields to suggest that this major trend has changed.

Mutual fund data indicates that since the start of 2009 over $1 trillion dollars has moved into bond funds with over $300 billion going into bonds in 2012. This compares with an approximate outflow from stock funds of over $150 billion. In fact, December 2012 was the 20th consecutive month that there were net outflows from stock funds.

There have been several times in the past few years when it looked as though the bond market may have topped. Just a minor outflow of funds from bonds to stocks could cause an explosive stock market rally.

Many bond fund holders only think about the yield not the potential for capital loss in bonds funds. Should they have to face a 10% loss in a bond fund they bought for its 5% yield, their attitudes could change dramatically.

The Week Ahead

The Economy in the Week Ahead

The economic reports in the week ahead include new data covering retail, manufacturing and inflation.

December's retail sales report is on tap Tuesday. Economists expect holiday sales were modest. Top-line sales are expected to have increased 0.2% last month.

The national industrial production report will be released Wednesday. Output is expected to post a 0.3% increase in December, and capital utilization is forecast to rise to 78.6% from 78.4% in November. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Philadelphia Fed will both release area factory surveys in the week ahead.

Additionally, producer and consumer inflation reports will be released Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Falling energy prices are expected to keep top-line indexes little changed. The median forecast expects that the producer price index fell 0.1% in December, with the core rate that excludes food and energy up 0.2%. The CPI is forecast to be unchanged in December, and the core index up 0.2%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the University of Michigan on Monday to discuss monetary policy, the global economic recovery and long-term challenges facing the U.S. economy. Mr. Bernanke will also take questions from the audience and from Twitter.

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Earnings and Company News in the Week Ahead

We will get fourth quarter earnings results from 69 companies, including 37 from the S&P 500 in the week ahead. The earnings reports thus far have been relatively improved, but after more than a tenth of the earnings reports out by the end of the week, we will have a better sample size to evaluate how this earnings season is unfolding.

The performances of the 27 companies that have already reported are better in all respects compared to what these same companies did in the third quarter. The growth rate is higher, more companies are beating, and the median surprise is higher -- both for earnings and revenues.

But with 95% of the reports still to come, the more important story on the earnings front pertains to expectations from the coming reports. And there has been no letup in the downward adjustments to those expectations. Last week’s foreclosure related banking settlement caused further negative revisions to estimates to a number of banks, particularly Bank of America (BAC).

Therefore, the second full week of January brings a barrage of earnings reports from U.S. corporations. In particular, investors will see results from most of the major U.S. banks including Citigroup (NYSE: C), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) in the week ahead.

It won't be all financials, though. Investors will also see how Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) performed in the week ahead, as well as Freeport-McMoran (NYSE: FCX) and Lennar (NYSE: LEN).

IPO’s Scheduled for the Week Ahead

A handful of companies are scheduled to go public in the week ahead.

The largest among the week ahead prospective offerings comes from CVR Refining LP, which owns petroleum-refining assets. The Sugar Land, Texas, company said earlier this week it plans to sell 20 million common units for between $24 and $26 apiece. Its units, which trade like shares, are slated to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol CVRR on Thursday. IPOs from energy-sector master limited partnerships have met strong demand of late, especially with interest rates low and investors hunting for yield.

Other companies scheduled to go public in the week ahead are limited partnerships SunCoke Energy Partners LP and USA Compression Partners, cruise-line operator Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. and data-center business CyrusOne Inc.

Here is a brief list of some of the key events in the week ahead.

All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

Monday

Earnings: PPG Industries

Economy:

• 11.55 am San Francisco Fed President John Williams
• 12.40 am Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart
• 4.00 pm Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke discusses economy/policy at University of Michigan

Tuesday

Earnings: Burberry, Forest Labs, Lennar, Commerce Bancshares, Linear Technologies

Economy:

• 8.00 am Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren
• 8.30 am Retail sales
• 8.30 am PPI
• 8.30 am Empire State survey
• 8.50 am Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota
• 10.00 am Business inventories
• 12.30 pm Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser

Wednesday

Earnings: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Bank of NY Mellon,Northern Trust, Charles Schwab, US Bancorp, First Republic, Comerica, KinderMorgan, Sallie Mae, eBay

Economy:

• 7.00 am Mortgage applications
• 8.30 am CPI
• 9.00 am Treasury international capital flow data
• 9.15 am Industrial production
• 10.00 am NAHB home builders sentiment survey
• 10.00 am Kocherlakota speaks on policy
• 2.00 pm Beige book
• 6.30 pm Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher
• 8.00 pm Kocherlakota speaks on policy

Thursday

Earnings: Bank of America, Citigroup, Blackrock, PNC Bank, Intel, People's United Financial, Capital One, Fastenal, BB&T, Taiwan Semiconductor, United Health, Amphenol, Fifth Third

Economy:

• 8.30 am Initial claims
• 8.30 am Housing starts
• 10.00 am Philadelphia Fed
• 12.05 pm Lockhart

Friday

Earnings: General Electric, Morgan Stanley, Schlumberger, State Street, Johnson Controls, SunTrust Banks,Progressive, McMoran Exploration, Parker Hannifin, Rockwell Collins, FirstHorizon Financial

Economy:

• 9.55 am Consumer sentiment

CLICK HERE for a complete list of companies reporting in the week ahead.

Conferences in the Week Ahead

Among the significant conferences next week are Needham Growth Conference Tuesday through Thursday in New York, the ICR XChange Conference Tuesday through Thursday in Miami and the North American International Auto Show in Detroit Monday through Jan. 27.

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Sentiment Effect in the Week Ahead

The sentiment numbers jumped last week with 46.5% of the individual investors bullish, up from 38.7% the prior week. These numbers can still go quite a bit higher but it is likely setting the stage for a sharper correction in the next month or so. Newsletter writers are now over 51.1% bullish with just 23.4% bearish.

Here is a list of the 69 companies reporting in the week ahead, including 37 S&P 500 members:

Company	Ticker	Current Qtr	Year-Ago Qtr	Last EPS Surprise %	Report Day	Time
LIMONEIRA CO	LMNR	0.07	0.04	-8.16	Monday	AMC
MATERIAL SCI CP	MASC	0.21	0.34	-40	Monday	BTO
PPG INDS INC	PPG	1.53	1.3	1.36	Monday	BTO
COMMERCE BANCSH	CBSH	0.72	0.66	-2.6	Tuesday	BTO
FOREST LABS A	FRX	-0.13	1.04	-16	Tuesday	BTO
FULTON FINL	FULT	0.2	0.18	5	Tuesday	AMC
INTERACTIVE BRK	IBKR	0.22	0.3	-25.71	Tuesday	AMC
LENNAR CORP -A	LEN	0.43	0.16	25.93	Tuesday	BTO
LINEAR TEC CORP	LLTC	0.4	0.4	0	Tuesday	AMC
MERCANTILE BANK	MBWM	0.31	0.3	-11.76	Tuesday	BTO
PINNACLE FIN PT	PNFP	0.33	0.17	10	Tuesday	AMC
RENASANT CORP	RNST	0.28	0.23	7.69	Tuesday	AMC
ADTRAN INC	ADTN	0.07	0.48	6.25	Wednesday	N/A
BANK OF NY MELL	BK	0.54	0.48	16.67	Wednesday	BTO
BANK OZARKS	OZRK	0.55	0.51	0	Wednesday	AMC
BOSTON PRIV FIN	BPFH	0.17	0.14	11.76	Wednesday	AMC
CLARCOR INC	CLC	0.7	0.73	-13.04	Wednesday	AMC
COMERICA INC	CMA	0.64	0.6	6.15	Wednesday	BTO
CVB FINL	CVBF	0.22	0.21	-43.75	Wednesday	AMC
EBAY INC	EBAY	0.61	0.55	6.52	Wednesday	AMC
EL PASO PIPELIN	EPB	0.55	0.51	10	Wednesday	AMC
FIRST REP BK SF	FRC	0.73	0.68	2.86	Wednesday	BTO
GOLDMAN SACHS	GS	3.31	1.84	30.73	Wednesday	BTO
JPMORGAN CHASE	JPM	1.2	0.9	15.7	Wednesday	BTO
KINDER MORG ENG	KMP	0.67	0.55	0	Wednesday	AMC
NORTHERN TRUST	NTRS	0.75	0.7	-1.35	Wednesday	BTO
PACIFIC CONTL	PCBK	0.19	-0.05	18.75	Wednesday	AMC
PLEXUS CORP	PLXS	0.49	0.51	4.76	Wednesday	AMC
SCHWAB(CHAS)	SCHW	0.15	0.13	0	Wednesday	BTO
SLM CORP	SLM	0.53	0.51	7.41	Wednesday	AMC
US BANCORP	USB	0.74	0.64	1.37	Wednesday	BTO
WENDYS CO/THE	WEN	0.04	0.04	-40	Wednesday	BTO
WNS HLDGS-ADR	WNS	0.25	0.26	0	Wednesday	BTO
AMER EXPRESS CO	AXP	1.05	1.04	0	Thursday	AMC
AMPHENOL CORP-A	APH	0.9	0.73	1.12	Thursday	BTO
ASML HOLDING NV	ASML	0.77	1.13	0	Thursday	BTO
ASSOC BANC CORP	ASBC	0.26	0.23	4	Thursday	AMC
BANK OF AMER CP	BAC	0.02	0.15	-100	Thursday	BTO
BB&T CORP	BBT	0.7	0.55	0	Thursday	BTO
BLACKROCK INC	BLK	3.69	3.06	5.15	Thursday	BTO
CAPITAL ONE FIN	COF	1.63	0.89	16	Thursday	AMC
CITIGROUP INC	C	0.88	0.38	9.28	Thursday	BTO
FASTENAL	FAST	0.33	0.3	0	Thursday	BTO
FIFTH THIRD BK	FITB	0.42	0.33	0	Thursday	BTO
HOME BANCSHARES	HOMB	0.66	0.5	1.79	Thursday	BTO
HUNTINGTON BANC	HBAN	0.17	0.14	11.76	Thursday	BTO
IGATE CORP	IGTE	0.35	0.24	-2.94	Thursday	BTO
INSTEEL INDS	IIIN	0.05	0	-50	Thursday	BTO
INTEL CORP	INTC	0.45	0.64	20	Thursday	AMC
MATTHEWS INTL-A	MATW	0.46	0.42	-6.67	Thursday	AMC
NETSCOUT SYSTMS	NTCT	0.3	0.31	17.39	Thursday	BTO
PEOPLES UTD FIN	PBCT	0.19	0.17	0	Thursday	AMC
PNC FINL SVC CP	PNC	1.56	1.39	1.86	Thursday	BTO
TAIWAN SEMI-ADR	TSM	0.27	0.2	3.23	Thursday	BTO
TESSCO TECH INC	TESS	0.56	0.59	33.33	Thursday	AMC
UNITEDHEALTH GP	UNH	1.2	1.17	11.94	Thursday	BTO
VIRGINIA COMMRC	VCBI	0.14	0.17	-5.56	Thursday	BTO
XILINX INC	XLNX	0.37	0.42	12.2	Thursday	AMC
FIRST HRZN NATL	FHN	0.17	0.13	-5.56	Friday	BTO
GENL ELECTRIC	GE	0.43	0.39	0	Friday	BTO
JOHNSON CONTROL	JCI	0.51	0.6	2.67	Friday	BTO
MCMORAN EXPLOR	MMR	-0.11	-0.03	-6.67	Friday	BTO
PARKER HANNIFIN	PH	1.14	1.56	-9.25	Friday	BTO
PROGRESSIVE COR	PGR	0.34	0.37	3.7	Friday	BTO
ROCKWELL COLLIN	COL	0.9	0.86	21.1	Friday	BTO
SCHLUMBERGER LT	SLB	1.09	1.11	1.89	Friday	BTO
STATE ST CORP	STT	1	0.93	3.13	Friday	BTO
SUNTRUST BKS	STI	0.62	0.28	-1	Friday	BTO
WEBSTER FINL CP	WBS	0.49	0.43	4.35	Friday	BTO

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