Market Outlook
Tuesday, 4th May, 2010



There is only one report on the economic front today:-

• The March factory orders report.

But, once again, there will be plenty of action on the economic front as we have many companies reporting their quarterly earnings.

These are:-

• Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM),

• ArvinMeritor Inc. (ARM),

• Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH),

• CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS),

• Duke Energy Corp. (DUK),

• Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. ( FDP),

• Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO),

• MasterCard Inc. (MA),

• Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK),

• Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP),

• Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC),

• Suncor Energy Inc. (SU),

• Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI),

• Vornado Realty Trust (VNO),

• Cephalon Inc. (CEPH),

• Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK),

• Evergreen Solar Inc. (ESLR),

• SBA Communications Corp. (SBAC), and

• True Religion Apparel Inc. (TRLG).

which indicates that we, once again, will have an interesting day on the markets, with plenty of ups-and-downs.

There is not a great deal of positive attitude this morning looking at the futures trading on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) where trading is 45 points and 6 points below fair value, respectively.

However, not to be pessimistic, which will not benefit the market, it appears that 50% of all analyst rankings being tracked are currently "buys." This figure has eclipsed the most recent peak of 49%, set in mid-2006, which leads to a fact that the market may finally be accepting a bull rally.

Also several companies have announced their quarterly reports which seem to be supporting analysts’ predictions. These are:-

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) reported adjusted first-quarter net income of 60 cents per share, as revenue increased 54% to $16.8 billion. Wall Street was looking for earnings of 53 cents per share and revenue of $16.6 billion. Looking ahead, Pfizer expects 2010 adjusted earnings of $2.10 per share to $2.20 per share, compared to the consensus estimate for $2.20 per share. However, the company said that it's reducing its 2012 revenue target by $800 million to reflect higher health care costs.

CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS)

CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS) reported a first-quarter profit of $771 million, or 56 cents per share, on revenue of $23.76 billion. Adjusted earnings were 60 cents per share. Wall Street was looking for earnings of 58 cents per share on sales of $24.07 billion. The company also hiked the low end of its 2010 guidance by 3 cents to a range of $2.77 per share to $2.84 per share.

Other factors which need to considered are:-

Overseas trading is looking very poor this morning as most major foreign indexes are trading in the red. In China, stocks fell due to tightening measures from the country's central bank. In Europe, Greece’s debt problems are still weighing heavily on share prices. Even with the financial aid package approved many investors continue to be wary of the risk that this type of debt situation could spread to other countries.

•Gold futures have climbed by $4.20 at $1,187.50 an ounce in London, once again viewed as a safe-haven in uncertain times.

•Crude futures are headed lower due to a stronger U.S. dollar, falling by $1.29 to $84.90 per barrel.

•The U.S. Dollar Index has gained 0.47% to trade at 82.74 due to the continued debacle in the EU which is devaluing the euro. There is still plenty of bullish activity still occurring but is not as prominent as previously, particularly with equity options trading. Looking at the figures stated by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) saw 1,674,493 call contracts traded on Monday, compared to 891,203 put contracts.

Trading with caution today, particularly with the EU situation, and the concern that overseas markets are in the red, is advised. With so many negative events occurring at the moment, the “fear” factor, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), will certainly be prominent again.




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