SPECIAL DISCOUNTED MEMBERSHIP RATES UNTIL JUNE 30, 2010

Market Outlook
Thursday, June 24, 2010

8:30 … Durable Goods

8:30 … Initial Jobless Claims

10:30 … EIA Natural Gas Inventory

4:30 PM … Money Supply

4:30 PM … Fed Balance Sheet

Also the following companies are reporting their quarterly earnings:-

• Discover Financial Services (DFS),

• Lennar Corp. (LEN),

• H&R Block Inc. (HRB),

• Oracle Corp. (ORCL), and

• Research In Motion Limited (RIMM).

Thursday sees stock futures falling as investors brace for new economic and jobs reports that are expected to paint a mixed picture for the economy.

A combination of weak housing data and cautious remarks from the Fed on Wednesday led to slight moves for major stock market indexes, a fall in the dollar and gains for Treasury bonds.

"Unless the U.S. extend the [home buyer tax] credits (quite possible), the next two or three months of U.S. housing data will be a fascinating case study of how private demand looks in the post credit crisis world," said Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank.

Initial Jobless Claims

The Labor Department's weekly report on unemployment claims is expected to show fewer people sought jobless benefits last week, but not enough to signal that employers are increasing the pace of hiring.

Initial jobless claims likely fell to a seasonally adjusted 460,000, from 472,000 the previous week, according to economists polled by Thomson Reuters. Claims have remained high in recent months, calling into question whether a strong, sustained recovery can occur without broad job growth. Claims would likely have to drop to around 425,000 to signal a strong jump in hiring.

Durable Goods

A second report is expected to show orders for durable goods fell last month after a big jump in April. Economists expect orders for goods that last at least three years fell by 1.3 percent in May. The drop is likely due to a decline in commercial aircraft orders. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders are expected to have risen last month. Manufacturing has been one of the few areas of the economy that has shown consistent growth.

**The unemployment and durable goods orders reports come a day after The Federal Reserve struck a more cautious tone about the pace of recovery in the U.S. and the Commerce Department said sales of new homes fell to the lowest level on record. Evidence has been piling up in recent weeks that the economy is growing, but not as fast as investors might have hoped for earlier this year.

Reform Bill

Investors in financial services issues will be keeping an eye on developments in Washington as House and Senate negotiators attempt to complete work on a Wall Street reform bill.

Facing a self-imposed Thursday evening deadline, lawmakers must still sort out the most controversial provisions in a historic overhaul of U.S. financial rules. Democrats in charge of the process appear likely to retain tough restrictions on banks' trading and investment activities that could crimp profits.

Oil giant BP. (UK:BP) said Thursday that the lower marine riser package cap containment system was successfully reinstalled on the Deepwater Horizon's failed blow-out preventer on June 23.

The LMRP cap containment system was moved off the blow-out preventer earlier in the day "as a precaution following observation of an unexpected discharge of seawater from a diverter valve on the Discoverer Enterprise," BP said. The firm said that capture of oil and gas through the BOP's choke line via a manifold to the Q4000 vessel on the surface continued uninterrupted throughout the day.

There are a few further points to the mornings trading which need to be considered:-

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) logged its first gain of the week yesterday, adding only 4.9 points, but still closing below former support at the 10,300 level. The blue-chip barometer also gave up support at its 10-day moving average on Wednesday, and with futures pointing toward an opening loss of about 50 points, the Dow could be headed for a retest of support near 10,200, or even 10,000 if selling gains enough momentum.

• The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is holding above support in the 1,090-1,085 region, though the broad-market index is headed for an 8-point drop on the open, according to pre-market futures trading. The next layer of solid support for the SPX should emerge near 1,065, which is home to its May 2010 lows, while resistance should materialize near 1,100.

• Gold futures are up a mere 90 cents at $1,235.70 in London.

• The U.S. Dollar Index has crept 0.17% higher to 85.89 in pre-market trading, as the greenback benefits from a weakening euro and a safe-haven bid due to economic concerns.

• Benchmark crude futures are headed lower, with the most-active contract slipping 24 cents to $76.11 per barrel.

• Bonds : Treasury prices rose, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down to 3.09% from 3.11% on Wednesday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

• Equity option activity on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) saw 825,807 call contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 582,671 put contracts.

European ConcernsThe Fed said a recovery could be slow, hurt in part by weakness overseas. There are concerns that European countries facing mounting debt will have to slash spending so much that they will have stagnation in the continent's economy and that slowdown spreads around the globe. Those concerns have hurt the euro in recent months. The currency used by 16 countries was down to $1.2282 Thursday.

European share markets fell in morning trading. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.7 percent, Germany's DAX index dropped 0.6 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 1.1 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.9% in early afternoon trade.

• In Europe at midday, London -0.7%. Paris -1.1%. Frankfurt -0.6%.

The dollar was up versus the euro, but down against the British pound and the Japanese yen.



Asian Concerns

Earlier in Asia, shares finished the session mixed. Japan's benchmark Nikkei index scratched out a slight gain to finish the session in positive territory. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.6% and the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.1%.

• In Asia, Japan +0.1% to 9928. Hong Kong -0.6% to 20733. China -0.1% to 2567. India -0.1% to 17730.

Futures Trading

As of 6:45 a.m. in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 60 points, or 0.59%, to 10179, the S&P 500 futures fell 6.6 points to 1080.80 and the Nasdaq 100 futures were lower by 13.75 points to 1860.00.

Futures: Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.7%. Nasdaq -0.8%. Crude flat at $76.35. Gold flat at $1235.20.

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) reported first-quarter net income of $137.6 million, or 52 cents per share, with revenue rising 13.5% to $1.92 billion. Same-store sales rose 8.4% from the year-ago quarter. Wall Street was expecting earnings of 48 cents and revenue of $1.89 billion. Ahead of the open, BBBY shares were last seen down 1.4%.

NIKE Inc. (NKE) posted a fourth-quarter profit of $522 million, or $1.06 per share. Sales rose 8% to $5.1 billion. Analysts were looking for earnings of $1.05 per share on sales of $5.13 billion.

Oracle (ORCL) reports quarterly results after the market close. The software maker is expected to report earnings of 54 cents per share, up 17% from a year earlier, and revenue of $9.5 billion, up 38% from the prior year.

Dell Inc (DELL) forecast a jump of 14 percent to 19 percent in fiscal 2011 revenues as consumer and corporate spending returns, matching expectations.

• Google (GOOG) on Wednesday won a key copyright infringement battle with Viacom (VIA). A federal court ruled that Google's YouTube is not liable for its users' copyright violations.

• Apple (AAPL) fans are lining up to buy the hotly-anticipated iPhone 4, which is being released at Apple stores and other retailers, including Wal-Mart (WMT), RadioShack (RSH) and Best Buy (BBY), on Thursday.

• Resolution buys AXA's U.K. ops. Resolution Ltd. agreed to buy AXA's (AXAHY.PK) U.K. life insurance operations for £2.75B ($4.1B). Resolution is trying to bulk up its U.K. life insurance by merging several companies, and AXA plans to use the deal's proceeds to fund growth in other areas, including its U.K. wealth management business.

• Reliance invests in shale gas assets. India's Reliance Industries will invest $1.15B in the U.S. shale gas assets of Pioneer Natural Resources' (PXD), marking Reliance's second such deal this year. Reliance will pay $266M for a 49.9% stake in Pioneer's Eagle Ford shale acreage in Texas, and will contribute $879M towards drilling costs over the next four years.

• Hasbro toys with going private. Private equity firm Providence Equity Partners has reportedly held preliminary talks with Hasbro (HAS) about taking the toy company private. Talks could still fall apart, and may possibly be on hold at present because of market uncertainty, but a leveraged buyout of Hasbro, with its $6B market cap, would be the year's largest private equity deal.

• Blackstone in talks with South Korea's Woori. Blackstone Group (BX) is said to be in talks to take a stake in South Korea's Woori Finance Holdings. The Korean government, which owns a 57% stake in Woori worth around $6B, is expected to lay out a detailed sales plan in coming weeks. The stake likely won't be sold as a single block, but Woori has asked Blackstone to participate in the auction.

• BP's bad luck. BP's (BP) oil containment efforts hit a snag yesterday when an underwater robot collided with the containment cap. Oil gushed unchecked from the leaking well for most of the day until the cap was put back in place late last night. The House Judiciary Committee approved legislation that would remove the liability cap for BP and Transocean (RIG), and has sent the bill to the full House for consideration, while New York state's pension fund has decided to move forward with a lawsuit against BP in what is likely to be just the beginning of a long string of litigious actions against the firm. Separately, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar introduced a new, more flexible drilling moratorium after the previous deepwater drilling ban was overturned in court. Finally, though it may be too little, too late to help BP's public image, it turns out that BP and other oil majors based their response plans to a potential Gulf spill on government data that was faulty; government models had put very low odds on oil hitting shore, even in a spill much bigger than the current one. Premarket: BP +2.1% (7:00 ET).

• FOMC shows warier Fed. The FOMC kept its target rate at 0-0.25%, as expected, and maintained its "extended period" language. The point of interest came from the tone of the Fed's statement, which was both more cautious than the last meeting and more straightforward than usual: "Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad. Bank lending has continued to contract in recent months." The FOMC also noted that "underlying inflation has trended lower."

• Financial reform clips along. With a deadline to finish financial reform negotiations by today, lawmakers are sprinting ahead to wrap up key parts of the legislation. The House has agreed to drop its $150B up-front fund to unwind failed financial firms, and has adopted the Senate's plan to use taxpayer funds as needed and recoup the money from institutions after the fact. Lawmakers must still find a middle ground on proposals to limit banks' swap desks and to limit their investments in private equity and hedge funds.

• GM gears up for IPO. General Motors is reportedly preparing to file as soon as next week for an IPO that could raise as much as $20B, making it one of the largest U.S. IPOs ever. As part of the IPO, the Treasury would offload around 20% of its stake in GM, making it a minority owner in the automaker. The company is also said to be in talks with JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) about deals to improve consumer access to auto loans at its dealerships.

• YouTube wins infringement case. YouTube (GOOG) won its copyright infringement case with Viacom (VIA), in which Viacom was seeking at least $1B in damages from Google. Viacom said YouTube built its business by using the internet to "willfully infringe" on copyrighted material, and has promised to appeal.

• Aussie PM quits. Australia's prime minister, Kevin Rudd, stepped down just before a leadership vote he was likely to lose, paving the way for Julia Gillard to become the country's first female prime minister. On the whole, Australian stocks took the news in stride, gaining 0.6% before closing -0.1%. Analysts expect changes to be made to Rudd's controversial mega-mining tax, giving miners a lift. In Australian trading, Rio Tinto closed +1.7%, BHP Billiton +1.3%. (In U.S. premarket trading, however, RTP -3%, BHP -1.6% at 7:00 ET).

• New home sales dive. May's new home sales plunged 33% to 300,000, falling short of 400K consensus and April's 446K. The months' supply of homes jumped to 8.5 from 5. The expiring tax credit and continued overhang of existing homes contributed to the record low, and the drop would have been even worse if not for the significant downward revision of April's figure. The report raised fears that continued housing weakness could dampen a broader economic recovery.

• Providence Equity Partners is in preliminary talks for a leveraged buyout of toymaker Hasbro Inc (HAS), the Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources.

Investors moved into the safety of bonds for the third straight day, pushing interest rates lower. The dollar also strengthened as investors moved out of the euro again.

Markets are likely to remain rattled until the economy shows viable signs of improvement, said Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets.

"The economy is still fragile, so there's no long term conviction in the market," he said. "There's nothing to support or keep driving a long-term rally, so we're likely to see choppy markets today, tomorrow and throughout the rest of the summer."

As I have mentioned on numerous occasions this is the time to be making the most of the various market situations, whether volatile, moderate or however it comes, and trade options.