The facts behind the statement that “when the market makes a sizeable move in one direction, it's a sign for individual stock returns that move in the opposite direction” -- therefore, to confirm or deny this assertion the tracking of individual stocks after big market moves is undertaken.
A closer look at the latest release of data illustrates that only 22% of investors are bullish, while nearly 42% are bearish – pessimism gone mad! However, by employing a philosophy that looks beyond the depressed state of crowd sentiment, there is a supporting theory, where an investigation of prior instances of extreme bearishness unveils an optimistic caveat you should be aware of.
Recently, the historical volatility overtook the VIX. So, by looking back at some prior instances, we are able to see what this means to the market moving forward -- confirming that these signals are very good buying opportunities.
The mid-year seasonality appears to be a little more positive for markets this year, as there are currently a low number of bullish investors, according to the Investors Intelligence sentiment poll, which is good news for the rally to continue.
Technical analysis involves evaluating a stock simply by looking at its price chart. This article looks at some of the more popular technical tools being employed and compares their accuracy over the past several years and how this information may be applied to trading in the week ahead.
The SPX index's popular 200-day moving average is analyzed after this benchmark trendline was breached and reclaimed in a matter of mere days. The numbers are studied to determine how previous breaks for this moving average have played out for the SPX.
In this analysis, strategies are examined to determine which ones would have been more profitable so far in 2012. Considering options costs and the returns generated from cheap or expensive moves presents some very interesting results.
For the week ahead, observation of the MACD indicator on the SPX weekly chart provides more insight to market strategies. This article gives insight as to the accuracy of this sell signal and how to interpret further market progression.
Another indicator, the 50-day moving average is also discussed and shows results as to its accuracy within the market strategy!
We're now about half way through the April/May earnings season. Looking at optionable, liquid stocks, there were 579 companies that reported earnings in April. This article takes a look at the earnings returns from previous years during the April/May earnings season, and gives an insight as to whether April can tell us anything about what may lie in store for May. A few potential earnings-related plays for May are also provided.
Since the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) is "cheap," as well as other various VIX products -- such as VIX options – at this present time, therefore, making ideal instruments for hedging equity portfolios.
In the week ahead it is interesting to take a look at how individual stocks have performed, depending on certain characteristics. A look at several indicators helps to clarify the situation – market capitalization returns, prior month's returns and buy-to-open (BTO) option volume data.
At the end of this week, equity options are set to expire. Expiration week has tended to be a bit bearish over the last couple of years -- averaging a slight loss, with 52% of those weeks being positive. Will this be a similar occurrence for April? -- this article discusses the various possibilities!
The stock market, including the NYSE, is closed on Good Friday, when many financial institutions and government offices are open. The reasons behind the closing have prompted some great theories which are discussed in this article.
Easter seasonality is now with us, and according to the table included in this article, the fact that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is positive on the year should make us quite optimistic for the rest of 2012.
A question often asked -- does the seasonal change marked by the Easter holiday, with the U.S. stock market closed on the preceding Good Friday, tend to produce anomalous returns? To further clarify this question an analysis of the historical behavior of the S&P 500 Index before and after the holiday was conducted.
There are a few key reasons why this earnings season will be unique and more volatile than others we have seen in the recent past. This article provides an insight into why some stocks will soar -- and some will plummet dramatically!
Correlation gauging has have fallen significantly this year, indicating it might be time once again to utilize a stock-picking prowess. In 2011 stock correlation peaked at around 90%, and spent most of the year above 80%. In 2012, it has fallen dramatically, and currently stands around 43%.
This article looks at the market's post-Black Friday performance during the week ahead, and offers up a selection of retail stocks that might be capable of bringing some glad tidings to your portfolio.
The origin of Black Friday – gold market scandal of 1869, today’s interpretation and importance of the day leading on to “Cyber Monday” are also discussed.
In the week ahead on Wall Street the Turkey, or Thanksgiving, Effect will need to be negotiated. It is a well-documented stock market phenomenon that the market is unusually bullish both the day before and the day after Thanksgiving. Compelling reasons to trade this week!
With the Dow making new medium-term lows before swiftly rebounding to new medium-term highs, it seems that this might signal an imminent breakout to higher levels -- or perhaps it just indicates a more volatile range!
Sentiment analysis is an important area of market trading decisions, therefore tracking of sentiment polls becomes essential to determine the direction of market movements. Three of importance are…..read more.....
By taking a closer look at individual stocks to see if any stood out during the fourth quarter of the last five years, by reviewing returns on the most liquid stocks at hand, it was determined that only four equities had positive returns in each of the last five fourth quarters. These outperformers are listed.....