“Cut-to-the-Chase” Recommendations
- Week Beginning -
Monday, June 26, 2017

by Ian Harvey

IMPORTANT NOTE: There is no stop-loss or pre-determined sell price recommended – this is left to the discretion of the individual trader.


Option Trade - FireEye Inc (NASDAQ:FEYE) Calls

Friday, June 30, 2017

** OPTION TRADE: Buy the FEYE AUG 18 2017 16.000 CALL at approximately $0.95. Sell price is left to your own judgment.

FireEye Inc (NASDAQ:FEYE), a standout in the red-hot cyber security sector, is ready for revival. Thanks to the company’s improved operating metrics and growth prospects in the quarters ahead, FEYE stock has caught on fire; up almost 28% over the past three months.

Indeed, after the 41% decline last year alone — driven by strong competition from the likes of like Palo Alto Networks Inc (NYSE:PANW), Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) and Fortinet Inc (NASDAQ:FTNT) — FEYE stock has finally shown a bottom, after a 41% decline last year alone — driven by strong competition from the likes of like Palo Alto Networks Inc (NYSE:PANW), Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) and Fortinet Inc (NASDAQ:FTNT).

Influencing Factors

FireEye’s cost-cutting efforts should continue to have a meaningful impact on its bottom line. The adjusted loss for fiscal 2018 is projected to narrow from 99 cents per share to 30 cents. And that compares to an adjusted loss of $1.47 for fiscal 2017.

Combined with new product launches to grow the top line, FEYE stock — which is trading around $15.50 — can rise an additional 15%, reaching $18 per share.

Improved sales execution, along with enhanced relationship with channel partners and product launches, including Helix and HX, drove a top-line beat and narrower Q1 loss. Notably, FireEye’s adjusted gross profit grew 11% year over year to $119.3 million, while gross margin expanded 480 basis points to 68.7%.

Plus, despite a decline in billings (a closely-watched metric that underscores the strength of future revenue) to $152.4 million, it was still above Street forecast and above management’s guidance of $130 to $150 million.

These improved metrics, combined with product launches such as Helix and HX Endpoint Security, when taken together means FireEye is well positioned to capitalize on the growth in cybersecurity that’s about to come.

According to consulting company NTT Com Security, half of the 1,000 business executives said they did not have a formal plan in place to secure and protect company data if they were hacked.

In the next three years, these organizations are expected to spend $101.6 billion on cybersecurity software, services, and hardware, according to research by the International Data Corporation (IDC). That level of spending amounts to a 38% increase from the $73.7 billion that IDC projects organizations spent on cybersecurity in 2016.

Analysts and Hedge Funds Opinions

FireEye, Inc. was upgraded by equities research analysts at Vetr from a “buy” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a report issued on Wednesday. The brokerage presently has a $17.31 target price on the information security company’s stock. Vetr‘s price target would suggest a potential upside of 12.33% from the stock’s current price.

Also, several other equities analysts have recently commented on the company…..

  • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) upgraded shares of FireEye from a “sell” rating to a “buy” rating and boosted their target price for the company from $10.00 to $15.00 in a research report on Thursday, March 23rd.
  •  Bank of America Corporation upgraded shares of FireEye from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating and upped their target price for the stock from $13.50 to $18.00 in a research note on Monday, March 20th.
  • Oppenheimer Holdings, Inc. reiterated an “outperform” rating and issued a $23.00 target price on shares of FireEye in a research note on Thursday, May 4th.
  • Stifel Nicolaus reiterated a “buy” rating and issued a $20.00 target price (up previously from $17.00) on shares of FireEye in a research note on Wednesday, May 3rd.

Also, several institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the stock…..

  • Bank of Montreal Can now own 7,887 shares of the information security company’s stock worth $100,000 after buying an additional 2,147 shares during the last quarter.
  • Searle & CO. purchased a new stake in shares of FireEye during the fourth quarter worth about $129,000.
  • Patriot Financial Group Insurance Agency LLC purchased a new stake in shares of FireEye during the fourth quarter worth about $131,000.
  • Sigma Planning Corp purchased a new stake in shares of FireEye during the first quarter worth about $132,000.

Summary

Thanks to FireEye’s malware sandboxing technology, used for detecting advanced security threats before they find their way into a network, FEYE stock is poised to benefit from the security growth. FireEye still has arguably best-of-breed security offering that can help secure market share from network security vendors like Cisco and Fortinet.

Also, FireEye management issued a strong outlook for the second quarter and full-year 2017.

FireEye traded up 0.674% during midday trading on Thursday, hitting $15.695. The stock had a trading volume of 1,793,802 shares. The stock’s 50-day moving average is $14.98 and its 200-day moving average is $12.91. The stock’s market capitalization is $2.80 billion. FireEye has a 1-year low of $10.35 and a 1-year high of $18.42.


Option Trade - Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) Calls

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

** OPTION TRADE: Buy the MU JULY 21 2017 34.000 CALL at approximately $1.25. Sell price is left to your own judgment.

Shares of the Boise, Idaho-based Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU), a memory chip manufacturer, have climbed 40% in 2017, as its quarterly results have consistently outpaced analyst expectations, thanks to the favorable pricing of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) and NAND chips. Memory-chip supply is still falling slightly short of demand, pushing prices higher and setting Micron up for a terrific performance when it releases its fiscal third-quarter earnings on June 29.

Micron Technology is set to post its most recent quarterly report on Thursday June 29, after the bell.

The year-over-year comparisons are going to be impressive no matter what. Wall Street expects Micron's revenue to jump an impressive 86% from the prior-year period to $5.4 billion, which should boost its earnings to $1.50 per share, all the way from a loss of $0.08 last year. Analysts were originally expecting the memory specialist's revenue to increase 62% year over year, but favorable market dynamics helped Micron post a stellar outlook, encouraging analysts to raise their estimates.

Monday's burst in MU shares comes courtesy of Wells Fargo analyst David Wong, who raised his price target on the stock from $32.50 to $40, representing about 26% upside from current prices.

MU stock is on a big run as a result of stronger business and industry fundamentals. DRAM prices have certainly been going in the right direction for MU stock … This has resulted in a nice increase in gross margins, which have gone from 18% in Q4 to 38.5% in Q2 … The outlook for gross margins for Q3 is 44%-48%.

Micron’s on pace for its most profitable year in its history; expecting the optimism to continue before and after the report, and a cool-off to come at a later date when the bar is higher and thus the growth isn't as eye-popping.

Influencing Factors

Micron offers both DRAM and NAND products. While DRAM chips are key components in PCs, NAND flash chips are crucial for portable electronic devices.  The company reported modest second-quarter fiscal 2017 results. The top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis, primarily due to pricing improvement in DRAM and NAND sales volume.

The improving prices for DRAM and NAND chips make investors confident about Micron's growth. Per various sources, the prices for these specific chips have improved primarily due to a better product mix optimization and higher-than-expected demand for PCs, servers and mobiles.

Any increase in prices will have a favorable impact on the company's top line and the benefit is likely to flow down to the bottom line. The benefit from improved pricing was well reflected in the company's last quarterly results. Anticipate these benefits to reflect in the to-be-reported quarter as well.

Additionally, the company's strategy of enhancing its operating capabilities through acquisitions is likely to boost its top-line performance.

Going forward, the acquisitions of Elpida and Rexchip (now known as Micron Memory Japan, Inc. and Micron Memory Taiwan Co., Ltd., respectively) will increase Micron's traction in the memory market.

The buyout of Inotera in Dec 2016 will have some operational benefits, leading to efficient management of investment and cadence, followed by alignment with global manufacturing operations.

Analysts and Hedge Funds Opinions

Micron Technology, Inc. had its price target boosted by Cowen and Company from $34.00 to $38.00 in a research note issued to investors on Monday. The brokerage currently has an “outperform” rating on the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock. Cowen and Company’s price objective suggests a potential upside of 19.76% from the stock’s previous close.

Analyst Timothy Arcuri expects the company to achieve another “beat and raise” and thinks that the consensus estimates have EPS up to $0.10 too low for Q4.

Arcuri cites the sustainable growth of the DRAM S/D side of the business and thinks the Street has undervalued the NAND business.

Also, Micron Technology had its price target upped by Wells Fargo & Company from $32.50 to $40.00 in a report issued on Monday. The brokerage currently has an “outperform” rating on the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock. Wells Fargo & Company’s price target would suggest a potential upside of 26.06% from the stock’s previous close.

Also, several other equities analysts have recently commented on the company…..

Credit Suisse Group reiterated their outperform rating on shares of Micron Technology, Inc. in a report issued last Wednesday morning. Credit Suisse Group currently has a $40.00 price target on the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock.

Robert W. Baird reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and set a $40.00 price objective on shares of Micron Technology in a research note on Monday, June 19th.

Stifel Nicolaus reissued a “buy” rating and issued a $47.00 price target on shares of Micron Technology in a research note on Tuesday, June 6th.

One analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, four have given a hold rating, twenty-six have issued a buy rating and one has given a strong buy rating to the stock. The company has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $38.00.

Several institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the stock…..

Wynnefield Capital Inc. purchased a new stake in shares of Micron Technology during the first quarter valued at approximately $13,519,000.

Westfield Capital Management Co. LP purchased a new stake in Micron Technology, Inc. during the first quarter, according to its most recent filing with the SEC. The firm purchased 562,270 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock, valued at approximately $16,250,000.

Finally, Coconut Grove Bank increased its stake in shares of Micron Technology by 1,422.5% in the first quarter. Coconut Grove Bank now owns 5,405 shares of the semiconductor manufacturer’s stock valued at $156,000 after buying an additional 5,050 shares during the last quarter.

Summary

The last time we traded Micron Technology members could have made a potential profit of 283%.

MU shares are up more than 160% over the past 12 months, and it's already up more than 15% over the past month. Micron is, simply put, running hot.

Micron Technology has a 12 month low of $11.50 and a 12 month high of $32.93. The company has a market capitalization of $35.10 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 49.42 and a beta of 1.77. The company’s 50-day moving average price is $29.67 and its 200 day moving average price is $25.76.


Option Trade - Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE:DRI) Calls

Monday, June 26, 2017

** OPTION TRADE: Buy the DRI JULY 21 2017 92.500 CALL at approximately $1.15. Sell price is left to your own judgment.

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE:DRI), a full service restaurant company, will post its fiscal fourth-quarter numbers on June 27. The company will report its quarterly numbers before the market open, with the consensus calling for earnings of $1.15 per share, on revenue of $1.86 billion. During the same period last year it earned $1.10 on sales of $1.79 billion.

Last quarter, Darden delivered a 3.94% positive earnings surprise. In fact, the company’s earnings surpassed the Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 3.35%.

DRI has shown a lot of strength in 2017, with shares rising 23.1% on the year.

Darden Restaurants has been a top performer since November, and the stock is currently just shy of its all-time high. Earnings have been rising nicely, and expected to continue doing so moving forward.

Influencing Factors

Positive comps growth and costs-saving initiatives are driving the bottom line and are expected to boost the fiscal fourth quarter results as well. Notably, Darden’s earnings have surpassed the Consensus Estimate over the last 10 consecutive quarters.

Meanwhile, management has been focusing on improving core operating fundamentals with initiatives like simplifying kitchen systems, better in-restaurant execution to enhance guest experience, menu innovation, remodeling, along with various technology-driven moves. Backed by these initiatives, most of Darden’s brands have been witnessing growth over the past few quarters. Expect the trend to also continue in the to-be-reported quarter.

On Apr 24, Darden completed its acquisition of small restaurant chain, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen.

In the fiscal third quarter conference call, the company had announced that it expected earnings per share for the fiscal fourth quarter to be in the range of $1.11 and $1.16, while restaurant sales growth was projected to be in the band of 2-3%. These projections excluded the impact of Cheddar’s purchase.

Analysts and Hedge Funds Opinions

Canaccord Genuity reaffirmed their buy rating on shares of Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE:DRI) in a research report sent to investors on Friday, June 9th. Canaccord Genuity currently has a $102.00 price target on the restaurant operator’s stock.

Also, several other equities analysts have recently commented on the company…..

Darden Restaurants, Inc. ‘s stock had its “hold” rating reaffirmed by equities research analysts at Maxim Group in a research report issued on Wednesday. They currently have a $90.00 target price on the restaurant operator’s stock. Maxim Group’s price target would indicate a potential upside of 0.94% from the stock’s previous close.

The analysts wrote, “We maintain our Hold rating on Darden Restaurants (DRI), though raise our price target to $90, from $87 ahead of the release of F4Q17 (May) earnings on Tuesday, June 27.”

Also, several institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the stock…..

American International Group Inc. raised its stake in shares of Darden Restaurants, Inc. by 1.3% during the first quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the SEC. The institutional investor owned 6,198,698 shares of the restaurant operator’s stock after buying an additional 77,248 shares during the period.

Van ECK Associates Corp acquired a new stake in Darden Restaurants during the fourth quarter worth about $113,000.

Also, Ledyard National Bank raised its stake in shares of Darden Restaurants by 399.4% in the first quarter. Ledyard National Bank now owns 1,638 shares of the restaurant operator’s stock worth $137,000 after buying an additional 1,310 shares in the last quarter.

Summary

Analysts predict earnings growth, per annum, of 11.7% over the next five years, and for the fourth-quarter the consensus calls for year over year earnings growth of 4.5%. The Street expects an earnings beat, with a whisper number of $1.17, which is two pennies above the general consensus estimate. Based on past performance, it would be hard to bet against the whisper number. Darden has posted better-than-expected profits nine of the last 10 quarters.

Darden Restaurants has a 1-year low of $59.50 and a 1-year high of $93.02. The stock has a 50 day moving average price of $88.75 and a 200 day moving average price of $79.92. The company has a market cap of $11.09 billion, a PE ratio of 22.77 and a beta of 0.25.


Option Trade - Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:EA) Calls

Monday, June 26, 2017

** OPTION TRADE: Buy the EA JULY 21 2017 115.000 CALL at approximately $1.25. Sell price is left to your own judgment.

Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:EA), a game software content and services provider, topped out at a record high of $116.04 on June 8, but were last seen trading at $110.87 -- up 43.0% in 2017. Current price levels place the shares above the rising trend-line. 

And shares of the video game specialist jumped 19.5% last month, after the company reported another strong quarter.

Fiscal fourth-quarter results were released in early May, showing revenue rose 17% to $1.53 billion while operating income jumped 34% to $717 million. Net income fell 37% to $566 million, or $1.81 per share, but that was due in large part to an income tax benefit a year ago transitioning to a loss in the most recent quarter.

EA is moving to a business that generates more revenue from digital sources, like mobile and add-ons for console games. Sixty-one percent of total revenue was from digital sources, or $3.03 billion, up 20% from a year ago. Management also said it expects fiscal 2018 revenue to be about $5.075 billion and net income to be $1.125 billion, or $3.57 per share.

The stock's rising 30-day moving average has helped lift the shares higher in the last six months, and quickly contained EA's most recent pullback.

EA's impressive price performance could earn it a round of bullish brokerage notes, too. Of the 14 brokerages covering the shares, four continue to maintain lukewarm "hold" ratings, while the consensus 12-month price target of $117 stands at a 6.3% premium to Electronic Arts stock's trading price.

Short-term EA options are attractively priced, from a volatility perspective.

Influencing Factors

EA is making a smart shift to digital revenue streams.

EA recently held a conference and showcased Madden NFL 2018 , and while the franchise has become somewhat infamous for delivering relatively minor updates with most yearly releases, there are some big changes on the way for the company's long-running football series. CEO Andrew Wilson was eager to spotlight the game's new story mode, which will have players assume the role of an aspiring NFL player as he competes to make it as a professional athlete.

This year's versions of Madden on PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and PC platforms will also be built with EA's Frostbite engine, which should help the company deliver the series' biggest visual leap in years. Wilson stated that the upcoming football game will be the most innovative Madden in years, and between the new story mode and improved visuals, it's fair to say that he's probably right.

Battlefront 2 received more focus than any other game at EA's conference, and it looks as if the company is making big efforts to improve on the game's predecessor. The upcoming sequel will feature a robust story mode, and Wilson stated that it would feature three times as much content as its predecessor.

The company aims to add value for players who might have reason to be skeptical about the Star Wars: Battlefront series while leaving the door open for in-game digital sales. It's a different approach from the one the company is taking with its World War I-themed shooter Battlefield 1, which will see a major new DLC launch in September that must be purchased to access, but it seems like the right move.

The push to improve the quality of its releases is also evident in the management of the NBA Live franchise.

Also, EA's Need for Speed is also making a comeback, with a story mode that looks to take heavy inspiration from the popular Fast & Furious film franchise.

Analysts and Hedge Funds Opinions

Electronic Arts Inc. had its target price raised by investment analysts at Benchmark Co. from $114.00 to $131.00 in a research note issued on Tuesday. The firm presently has a “buy” rating on the game software company’s stock. Benchmark Co.’s price target would indicate a potential upside of 15.76% from the stock’s previous close.

Also, several other equities analysts have recently commented on the company…..

  • Morgan Stanley raised their price objective on shares of Electronic Arts from $114.00 to $126.00 and gave the company an “overweight” rating in a research note on Wednesday, June 7th.
  • Credit Suisse Group reaffirmed a “buy” rating and issued a $114.00 price objective on shares of Electronic Arts in a research note on Sunday, May 28th.
  • Mizuho reaffirmed a “buy” rating and issued a $115.00 price objective on shares of Electronic Arts in a research note on Monday, June 12th.

Currently, the stock has a 1 Year Price Target of $117.

The consensus recommendation is 1.61. The scale runs from 1 to 5 with 1 recommending Strong Buy and 5 recommending a Strong Sell.

The Stock had a 1.68 Consensus Analyst Recommendation 30 Days Ago, whereas 60 days ago and 90 days ago the analyst recommendations were 1.79 and 1.79 respectively.

Arizona State Retirement System boosted its stake in shares of Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:EA) by 2.3% during the first quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund owned 76,273 shares of the game software company’s stock after buying an additional 1,700 shares during the period. Arizona State Retirement System’s holdings in Electronic Arts were worth $6,828,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.

Also, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Holdings Co. Ltd. raised its stake in shares of Electronic Arts by 270.5% in the third quarter. Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Holdings Co. Ltd. now owns 1,630 shares of the game software company’s stock valued at $139,000 after buying an additional 1,190 shares during the period.

Summary

Electronic Arts Inc. has a 12-month low of $71.01 and a 12-month high of $116.04. The firm has a market cap of $34.37 billion, a PE ratio of 36.00 and a beta of 0.59. The firm’s 50-day moving average is $108.42 and its 200 day moving average is $91.18.


Option Trade - General Mills, Inc. (NYSE:GIS) Puts

Monday, June 26, 2017

** OPTION TRADE: Buy the GIS JULY 21 2017 55.000 PUT at approximately $1.00. Sell price is left to your own judgment.

Minneapolis-based General Mills, Inc. (NYSE:GIS), a consumer-goods maker, will report its fiscal fourth-quarter results before the market open June 28. The consensus is calling for earnings of $0.71 per share on revenue of $3.75 billion. During the same period last year the company had earnings of $0.66, on sales of $3.93 billion.

General Mills stock has been a complete train wreck over the last year, and shares are currently trading just above their 52-week low. Sales have been a problem, with revenue falling short of estimates for three straight quarters. For the fourth-quarter, analysts expect sales of $3.75 billion, down from $3.86 billion during the same period last year. There is a lot of pessimism surrounding the stock right now.

Although General Mills is making efforts to drive revenue growth through consumer-focused innovations and marketing initiatives in its key businesses, the company is expected to witness muted sales growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2017. This is due to continued volume declines in North America.

Sales and profits at the North America Retail segment, which accounted for about 66.1% of the company's total sales in fiscal third quarter, have been soft due to lower demand amid weak food industry trends and changing consumer preference. The company also expects its organic sales growth to drop 4% in fiscal 2017.

However, General Mills stock is beaten down and underperforming the market.

Technical indicators for GIS are bearish and the stock is in a strong downward trend. The stock has fallen below recent support and has recent resistance below $59.50.

General Mills is a $33 billion company today. Investors that bought shares one year ago are sitting on a -13.64% total return. That's below the S&P 500's return of 17.81%.

GIS shares have fallen 9.9% on the year.

Influencing Factors

General Mills' revenue topped out in 2014 and has been declining since then. This has been offset by share buybacks and cost reductions, but a declining top line is exactly why shares are as cheap as they are. While EPS has continued to rise over this time, most of the company's free cash flow is spent in dividends, so heavy buybacks cannot continue forever.

General Mills has been behind the curve in understanding the wants of the Millennial generation in North America (where most of its revenue still is). For Millennials, "eating healthy" isn't just a fad, nor are Millennials the type of generation to go from one 'healthfood fad' to another, as their Baby Boomer predecessors were more prone to doing. Millennials tend to want food with low carbs, low to no sugar, few artificial preservatives, sourced locally and ideally organic. In other words, everything General Mills is perceived not to be.

North America retail sales were down 7% year-on-year last quarter, and leading the way were declines in prepackaged meals, Pillsbury baking dough, and yogurt, the latter of which saw double-digit declines. This drove global revenue down 5% in constant currency.

General Mills reported a recent Earnings-per-Share (EPS) Growth rate of 1.64%. That's below the food products industry average of 11.4%.

The debt-to-equity ratio for General Mills stock is 184.4%. That's above the food products industry average of 71.94%.

General Mills’ Free Cash Flow per Share Growth has been lower than that of its competitors over the last year.

Analysts and Hedge Funds Opinions

Zacks Investment Research cut shares of General Mills, Inc from a hold rating to a sell rating in a research note issued to investors on Monday, June 19th.

According to Zacks, “Sales and profits at General Mills’ North America Retail segment, contributing 66% to its sales, have been soft due to lower demand amid changing consumer food preferences. Moreover, the U.S. cereal category has been declining in the recent years, with net sales decreasing 3% in the first nine months of fiscal 2017. Organically, sales growth is expected to drop approximately 4% in fiscal 2017, primarily due to a widening gap between the company's level of promotional activity and that of competitors in the U.S. yogurt and soup categories. Though General Mills is focused on innovation, marketing initiatives and restructuring savings, we believe a material improvement will take time. The company’s shares have also underperformed the Zacks categorized Food-Miscellaneous/Diversified industry year-to-date.”

Credit Suisse Group reissued their neutral rating on shares of General Mills, Inc. in a report published on Friday, May 19th. The brokerage currently has a $56.00 price target on the stock, down from their prior price target of $65.00.

Piper Jaffray Companies reaffirmed an “underweight” rating and issued a $56.00 price target (down from $57.00) on shares of General Mills in a research note on Monday, June 19th.

Susquehanna Bancshares Inc reaffirmed a “neutral” rating and issued a $59.00 price target (down from $62.00) on shares of General Mills in a research note on Tuesday, May 30th.

Six analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, thirteen have given a hold rating and two have given a buy rating to the company. General Mills presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of $60.33.

Summary

General Mills has quite a bit more downside with little upside until revenue can stabilize. General Mills is likely to trade a good bit below its average valuation, especially if the top line continues to decline and the buybacks ease off.

General Mills has a 1-year low of $55.57 and a 1-year high of $72.95. The stock has a market capitalization of $32.23 billion, a PE ratio of 20.73 and a beta of 0.60. The company’s 50 day moving average is $56.95 and its 200 day moving average is $59.75.





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